Research and publications

The Importance of the Structural Shape of Crude Oil Futures Curves

In the past, one could confidently discuss how crude oil futures contracts typically trade in “backwardation.” By backwardation, one means that a near-month futures contract trades at a premium to deferred-delivery futures contracts. For example, Litzenberger and Rabinowitz (1995) pointed out that the NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract’s front-to-back futures spreads were backwardated at least 70% of the time between February 1984 and April 1992. This pattern was so persistent that these authors theorised why this should be the typical shape of the crude oil futures price curve.

Author(s):

Hilary Till

Summary:

In the past, one could confidently discuss how crude oil futures contracts typically trade in “backwardation.” By backwardation, one means that a near-month futures contract trades at a premium to deferred-delivery futures contracts. For example, Litzenberger and Rabinowitz (1995) pointed out that the NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract’s front-to-back futures spreads were backwardated at least 70% of the time between February 1984 and April 1992. This pattern was so persistent that these authors theorised why this should be the typical shape of the crude oil futures price curve.

Register to download PDF

Register/Log in

Type :	Working paper
Date :	05/05/2014
Keywords :	Commodities

About EDHEC

Operating from campuses in Lille, Nice, Paris, London and Singapore, EDHEC is one of the world’s top 15 business schools. Fully international and directly connected to the business world, EDHEC commands a strong reputation for research excellence and the ability to train entrepreneurs and managers capable of breaking new ground. EDHEC functions as a genuine laboratory of ideas and produces innovative solutions valued by businesses. The School’s teaching is inspired by its research work and a focus on “learning by doing”, all with the aim of equipping people with the skills to succeed in business.

About EDHEC-Risk Climate Impact Institute

Marking the priority assigned by the School to sustainability issues and building on its research programmes exploring the relationships between climate change and finance, EDHEC-Risk Institute became EDHEC-Risk Climate Impact Institute in October 2022. The Institute's mission is to help private and public decision-makers manage climate-related financial risks and make the best use of the financial tools available to transition to low-emission and climate-resilient economies. The Institute’s research programmes explore the relationships between climate change and finance and our key ambition is to become a leading academic reference point for long-term investors, helping them to manage the asset-pricing implications of climate change as well as mitigation and adaptation efforts.