Research and publications

Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Backwardation as the Long-Term Driver of Commodity Futures Performance; Evidence from Soy, Corn and Wheat Futures from 1950 to 2004

In this paper, the authors examine the role of backwardation in the performance of passive long positions in soybeans, corn and wheat futures over the period of 1950 to 2004. They find that over this period, backwardation has been highly predictive of the return of a passive long futures position when measured over long investment horizons. The share of return variance explained by backwardation rises from 24% at a one-year horizon to 64% using five-year time periods. A revisited version of this paper was published in the Winter 2006 issue of the Journal of Alternative Investments.

Author(s):

Barry Feldman, Hilary Till

Summary:

In this paper, the authors examine the role of backwardation in the performance of passive long positions in soybeans, corn and wheat futures over the period of 1950 to 2004. They find that over this period, backwardation has been highly predictive of the return of a passive long futures position when measured over long investment horizons. The share of return variance explained by backwardation rises from 24% at a one-year horizon to 64% using five-year time periods. A revisited version of this paper was published in the Winter 2006 issue of the Journal of Alternative Investments.

Register to download PDF

Register/Log in

Type :	Working paper
Date :	16/03/2006
Keywords :	Commodities

About EDHEC

Operating from campuses in Lille, Nice, Paris, London and Singapore, EDHEC is one of the world’s top 15 business schools. Fully international and directly connected to the business world, EDHEC commands a strong reputation for research excellence and the ability to train entrepreneurs and managers capable of breaking new ground. EDHEC functions as a genuine laboratory of ideas and produces innovative solutions valued by businesses. The School’s teaching is inspired by its research work and a focus on “learning by doing”, all with the aim of equipping people with the skills to succeed in business.

About EDHEC-Risk Climate Impact Institute

Marking the priority assigned by the School to sustainability issues and building on its research programmes exploring the relationships between climate change and finance, EDHEC-Risk Institute became EDHEC-Risk Climate Impact Institute in October 2022. The Institute's mission is to help private and public decision-makers manage climate-related financial risks and make the best use of the financial tools available to transition to low-emission and climate-resilient economies. The Institute’s research programmes explore the relationships between climate change and finance and our key ambition is to become a leading academic reference point for long-term investors, helping them to manage the asset-pricing implications of climate change as well as mitigation and adaptation efforts.